fix(codex-bridge): estimate Claude requests more strictly; report an unexplained 400 on a near-full request

A 607 KB Codex request was estimated at 189776 tokens (window 200000), sent untrimmed and rejected by
Claude; the gateway only said "upstream 400", so Codex saw a dropped stream. Claude targets now use
2.6 bytes/token, and that bare 400 on a request filling most of the window becomes context_length_exceeded.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

apps/desktop/assets/codex-bridge/pencere.py

@@ -141,6 +141,11 @@ def ogren_aracsiz(home, kimlik):
     return True
 
 
+def kapali_hata_mi(metin):
+    """Gecit asil nedeni gizleyip yalniz "upstream 400" derse (olcum 11 Ekim 2026)."""
+    return bool(re.fullmatch(r"\s*upstream 4(?:00|13)\s*", metin or "", re.I))
+
+
 def tasma_mi(metin):
     return bool(_TASMA.search(metin or ""))
 
@@ -243,8 +248,17 @@ KIRP_ESIK = 6000             # bundan kisa metin parcasi kirpilmaz
 KIRP_BAS = KIRP_SON = 1500
 
 
-def tahmini_token(req):
-    return int(len(json.dumps(req, ensure_ascii=False).encode("utf-8")) / BAYT_BOLU_TOKEN)
+# Claude ayni metni daha cok tokena boler. Olcum (11 Ekim 2026): 607 KB'lik gercek Codex istegi 3,2 oraniyla
+# 189776 token tahmin edildi (pencere 200000) ve Claude tarafindan reddedildi; yani gercek oran 3,03'un altinda.
+CLAUDE_BAYT_BOLU_TOKEN = 2.6
+
+
+def oran_sec(hedef):
+    return CLAUDE_BAYT_BOLU_TOKEN if "claude" in str(hedef or "").lower() else BAYT_BOLU_TOKEN
+
+
+def tahmini_token(req, oran=None):
+    return int(len(json.dumps(req, ensure_ascii=False).encode("utf-8")) / (oran or BAYT_BOLU_TOKEN))
 
 
 def _metin_parcalari(req):
@@ -271,10 +285,10 @@ def _metin_parcalari(req):
     return parcalar
 
 
-def sigdir(req, pencere_token):
+def sigdir(req, pencere_token, oran=None):
     """Istegi hedef pencereye sigdirir. Donus: (kirpilan parca sayisi, sigdi mi, tahmini token)."""
     sinir = int(pencere_token * DOLULUK)
-    tahmin = tahmini_token(req)
+    tahmin = tahmini_token(req, oran)
     if not pencere_token or tahmin <= sinir:
         return 0, True, tahmin
     kirpilan = 0
@@ -286,7 +300,7 @@ def sigdir(req, pencere_token):
         sahip[anahtar] = (metin[:KIRP_BAS] + f"\n[... {len(metin) - KIRP_BAS - KIRP_SON} karakter çıkarıldı (köprü): "
                           f"seçili modelin bağlam penceresine sığmıyordu ...]\n" + metin[-KIRP_SON:])
         kirpilan += 1
-        tahmin = tahmini_token(req)
+        tahmin = tahmini_token(req, oran)
         if tahmin <= sinir:
             return kirpilan, True, tahmin
     return kirpilan, tahmin <= sinir, tahmin